2021-22 Abstract:
We aim to understand the mechanisms through which natural disasters can affect national economies around the world, using a novel combination of economic and earth science data and methods. Historically, economists have believed that disasters are “good for business,” and increase economic growth. However, a major challenge in understanding what actually occurs empirically has been the lack of cross-disciplinary engagement between social and physical sciences, as disasters are defined and measured inappropriately for socioeconomic reasons. In response, recent economic research using methods from earth science has shown that, when measured correctly, disasters suppressed economic growth for decades. The mechanisms are not yet understood, but theory suggests that long-term economic damage must be due to changes in investment behavior in the economy. Therefore, we investigate disaster effects at the firm-level, since firms are the driver of economic growth and investment within a country. Our focus is earthquakes and hurricanes, which are global in scope and affect roughly half of the countries on Earth. Using extensive firm-level data from dozens of countries combined with novel data on disaster exposure, we examine firm dynamics when a disaster strikes. Understanding mechanisms is parcularly important as this would guide policy responses that will help society better cope with natural disasters.
Abstract:
The objective of this research project is to investigate the long run consequences state-led repression on various economic and political outcomes. After the coup of September 11, 1973 the Chilean military under Pinochet engaged in regular murder, repression and torture of its opponents. Chile’s ‘Truth and Reconciliation Commission’ concluded that 3,197 people had been murdered and that more than 40,000 victims were subjected to physical and psychological torture for political reasons at nearly 1,200 sites spread throughout the country. Another 150,000 people had their work contracts terminated as a result of their political affiliations. This project employs rich sub-national data to establish if there is evidence of any long-lasting economic and political effects of the systematic violation of human rights during the military dictatorship.
We will examine whether politically motivated repression affects political outcomes such as competitiveness of elections or people’s willingness to participate in political or social movements years after it has taken place. The answers to these questions have important implications regarding the quality and legitimacy of democracy: Is it the case that left-wing parties do relatively worse today in localities that experienced more repression 40 years ago? Do people remain afraid to join a political party or to belong to a union?
We also seek to establish the relationship between state-led human rights violations and economic outcomes. The largest increase in inequality recorded in the post-WWII period was experienced by Chile under Pinochet’s regime and we want to test the hypothesis that repression by the military directly contributed to this increase. The main mechanism we want to explore is to look at how violence targeted at political actors promoting greater redistribution, such as union members or left-wing politicians, could have had potentially large effects on inequality. For instance, exposure to violence may have modified the behavior of these actors or their leverage in wage-setting negotiations. As mentioned above, thousands of people were dismissed from their employment or detained for long periods of time for their political affiliations and this may have also played a role.
Abstract:
The objective of this research project is to investigate the long run consequences state-led repression on various economic and political outcomes. After the coup of September 11, 1973 the Chilean military under Pinochet engaged in regular murder, repression and torture of its opponents. Chile’s ‘Truth and Reconciliation Commission’ concluded that 3,197 people had been murdered and that more than 40,000 victims were subjected to physical and psychological torture for political reasons at nearly 1,200 sites spread throughout the country. Another 150,000 people had their work contracts terminated as a result of their political affiliations. This project employs rich sub-national data to establish if there is evidence of any long-lasting economic and political effects of the systematic violation of human rights during the military dictatorship.
We will examine whether politically motivated repression affects political outcomes such as competitiveness of elections or people’s willingness to participate in political or social movements years after it has taken place. The answers to these questions have important implications regarding the quality and legitimacy of democracy: Is it the case that left-wing parties do relatively worse today in localities that experienced more repression 40 years ago? Do people remain afraid to join a political party or to belong to a union?
We also seek to establish the relationship between state-led human rights violations and economic outcomes. The largest increase in inequality recorded in the post-WWII period was experienced by Chile under Pinochet’s regime and we want to test the hypothesis that repression by the military directly contributed to this increase. The main mechanism we want to explore is to look at how violence targeted at political actors promoting greater redistribution, such as union members or left-wing politicians, could have had potentially large effects on inequality. For instance, exposure to violence may have modified the behavior of these actors or their leverage in wage-setting negotiations. As mentioned above, thousands of people were dismissed from their employment or detained for long periods of time for their political affiliations and this may have also played a role.